The global upstream sector is entering 2026 with its exploration engine running at full throttle, as high-impact wildcat drilling shows no signs of slowing after a strong 2025.
According to Rystad Energy, last year’s high-impact wildcat success rate climbed to 38 per cent, up from 23 per cent in 2024, driving a 53 per cent year-on-year increase in discovered volumes to around 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
High-impact wells are classified based on their potential resource size, their ability to open new hydrocarbon plays in frontier or emerging basins, and their strategic importance to operators.
This year, Rystad Energy has identified 42 such wells globally, with Africa expected to maintain its leadership, accounting for roughly 40 per cent of the total.
Drilling activity across the continent will continue to surge along the Atlantic margin, with the Orange Basin in Southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa emerging as key exploration hubs.
Rystad Energy’s outlook for 2026 reveals that ultra-deepwater and frontier exploration will dominate the year’s activity.
Around 60 per cent of planned high-impact wells are located in ultra-deepwater zones, primarily led by major international operators, while national and international NOCs together make up about 26 per cent of the total.
Most wells aim to test frontier regions, with approximately 5 per cent targeting previously discovered basins that could evolve into future hotspots, and another 5 per cent venturing into completely untested plays.
Africa’s role remains crucial, hosting all onshore high-impact drilling planned for 2026 apart from a single frontier test in Greenland’s Jameson Land.
Aatisha Mahajan, Rystad Energy’s Head of Exploration, Oil & Gas Research, noted that exploration investment patterns are evolving.
She said 2026 marks a distinct shift in where companies are willing to commit capital, with ultra-deepwater and frontier developments continuing to attract significant spending despite their higher costs.
These projects, she explained, offer scale and meaningful upside at a time when opportunities in conventional regions are narrowing.
Mahajan emphasised that Africa still provides the geological promise and commercial potential needed for substantial new discoveries, particularly as operators seek long-lived resource bases amid tightening global supply conditions.
Beyond Africa, Asia represents the next most active region, with eight high-impact wells identified—four in Indonesia, and two each in India and Malaysia.
Between 2021 and 2025, these countries awarded the largest offshore acreage in the region, each exceeding 200,000 square kilometres.
Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and China, however, dominated onshore licensing, reflecting Asia’s diverse exploration strategies.
Major players such as ONGC, Petronas, Oil India, Mari Petroleum, and Petro Matad have expanded their acreage positions, setting the stage for future high-impact campaigns.
Over the past decade, Asia has produced about 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent in conventional discoveries, around 62 per cent of which were gas.
Yet, regional gains have become increasingly concentrated in established basins, particularly in China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Discovery volumes in 2025 dropped to their lowest level in 10 years, totalling roughly one billion barrels of oil equivalent, though revisions are expected.
Oil discoveries dominated, spearheaded by Malaysia’s Megah and Vietnam’s Hai Su Vang finds, with offshore wells accounting for 83 per cent of new volumes.
In contrast, North America’s exploration outlook has softened considerably since 2022. The region’s yearly discovered volumes have failed to match even the previous decade’s lows.
Discoveries across Canada and Mexico have slowed, leaving the U.S. Gulf of Mexico as the main contributor.
In 2025, total new finds reached about 238 million barrels, including roughly 68 million barrels from Mexico and 170 million barrels from the Gulf.
With exploration now largely confined to mature basins, the region’s future appears tilted toward incremental, oil-weighted additions rather than breakthrough discoveries.
