A rethink of the European Union’s (EU) Arctic policy could help keep Norway’s Barents Sea gas in play well into the 2030s, supporting Europe’s transition with a nearby, lower-emission supply option as its dependency on the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market deepens, according to new research from Rystad Energy.
The European Commission is reviewing its 2021 Arctic policy and has opened a public consultation process through 16 March 2026.
With Barents Sea gas projects typically requiring five to 10 years to move from discovery to stable output, the EU’s position now will strongly influence whether new volumes from Norway’s already-open acreage can come online by the mid-2030s — or whether Europe will lean even more heavily on global LNG later in the decade.
Rystad Energy’s analysis indicates that the EU could clarify its approach by setting a narrower definition of what qualifies as “Arctic” territory and aligning operational eligibility with strict emission and environmental standards.
This would allow Norway’s established Barents developments to be treated separately from uncharted frontier areas.
Such a delineation would not alter the broader climate trade-offs of Arctic drilling but could influence how policymakers and buyers rank future gas supply options.
In Rystad Energy’s base case scenario, Norway supplies roughly 20 to 30 per cent of European gas demand through 2050, while LNG’s share rises from 30 per cent to 50 per cent, heightening Europe’s exposure to global market volatility.
“Lead times in the Barents Sea are long, so clear policies matter. If the EU sets clear definitions and requires data-backed verification, it can keep near-term supply options open without blurring its climate standards,” said Tore Guldbrandsøy, Partner and Oil & Gas Analyst at Rystad Energy.
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates that the already-open Barents Sea holds around 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of natural gas, or about 22 trillion cubic feet.
Rystad projects that producing fields and developments sanctioned by 2030 will deliver about 2.25 billion boe through 2050, with further potential hinging on new discoveries, coordinated multi-field developments, and expanded export capacity.
Infrastructure remains a critical factor.
A 2023 study by Gassco and the Norwegian Offshore Directorate found that new Barents export infrastructure could be socio-economically viable if resource volumes are confirmed.
Currently, the Hammerfest LNG terminal provides the region’s only export route, but its reliance on the Snøhvit field limits flexibility for new production.
A potential pipeline connection south to Norway’s existing network would require synchronised project timelines to justify investment.
Emissions performance will weigh heavily in the EU review. Norway’s upstream production ranks among the world’s lowest in greenhouse gas intensity, and its pipeline gas typically emits less than LNG imports.
At Snøhvit, carbon dioxide (CO₂) is reinjected offshore, and planned electrification of the Snøhvit–Hammerfest facilities is expected to further reduce the project’s carbon footprint.
Environmental advocates, however, caution that low upstream emissions do not offset the CO₂ produced when gas is burned.
“Europe is going to be comparing marginal gas supplies more than adding large new ones,” said Emil Varré Sandøy, Vice President for Oil & Gas Research at Rystad Energy.
“Using lifecycle emissions and methane performance as decision criteria won’t settle the broader climate debate, but it does steer remaining demand toward the lower-impact end of the barrel.
“A clearly defined and structured Arctic policy can help move the EU in that direction.”
The Commission’s review invites debate on how to balance supply security, climate commitments, and environmental safeguards for Arctic and sub-Arctic regions.
Its conclusions could shape not just policy boundaries, but the contours of Europe’s energy mix for decades ahead.
