Global upstream oil and gas merger-and-acquisition activity is projected to slow this year compared to 2025, with about US$152 billion worth of assets currently on the market, according to new analysis from Rystad Energy.
The consultancy says the final outcome will depend heavily on how quickly buyers move on large-scale transactions that have yet to find takers.
Rystad Energy vice president for oil and gas M&A, Atul Raina, said 2026 would see North America retain its dominance as the centre of deal-making activity.
“Rystad Energy expects North America to remain the clear anchor for upstream M&A activity in 2026, with deal flow increasingly shaped by a new phase of a ‘merger of equals’ consolidation among small- and mid-cap listed US shale producers.
“This is further supported by ample private E&P capital yet to be deployed, ongoing consolidation in Canada’s Montney shale, and rising interest in gas and LNG-linked assets — particularly from Asian buyers seeking long-term security of supply.”
The consultancy noted that the international outlook remains uneven, as corporate appetite and risk vary widely across regions.
“By contrast, international M&A outlook remains uneven.
“While the pipeline of opportunities is sizeable, activity is concentrated around a small number of high-value and often complex transactions, limiting broader deal momentum.
“National oil companies from the Middle East, Asia, and South America are likely to be among more active participants, reflecting their continued appetite for scale and international exposure at a time when many IOCs remain selective.”
In 2025, global upstream M&A activity fell 17 per cent year-on-year to roughly US$170 billion, with deal count sliding 12 per cent to 466.
The slowdown was largely attributed to weaker and more volatile oil prices through the year, which widened the gap between buyer and seller expectations.
Brent crude dropped from US$79 per barrel in January to as low as US$63 in December, while West Texas Intermediate averaged US$58 per barrel by year-end.
North America led global M&A activity, generating more than US$112 billion, or 66 per cent, of total deal value.
Key consolidation moves included the merger of SM Energy and Civitas, Cenovus Energy’s US$17 billion acquisition of MEG Energy, and Blackstone’s consortium-led purchase of a 49.9 per cent stake in the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project from Sempra Infrastructure Partners.
Outside the US, Eni and Petronas combined selected assets in Indonesia and Malaysia, while TotalEnergies merged its UK operations with NeoNext Energy to form NeoNext+.
Regional deal values fell sharply elsewhere: Africa down 57 per cent to US$6 billion, Europe down 24 per cent to about US$10 billion, and Oceania plunging 96 per cent to US$435 million.
Only Asia and South America recorded growth, both around US$18 billion, driven by LNG-linked transactions in Malaysia and Argentina.
Early in 2026, US-based Coterra Energy and Devon Energy are reportedly assessing a potential merger, while Japan’s Mitsubishi has announced a US$7.5 billion acquisition of Aethon Energy.
Internationally, US$55 billion in potential deals remain in play, including possible sales of Santos (US$23.5 billion) and Lukoil’s international upstream portfolio (US$17 billion).
Even with a softer overall outlook, Rystad expects LNG-related assets to sustain interest.
Roughly US$8.6 billion worth of LNG infrastructure projects are up for sale globally, alongside US$2.5 billion in upstream assets tied to LNG production.
Energy Transfer is said to be exploring the sale of an 80 per cent stake in its planned Lake Charles LNG project, while Argentina’s YPF seeks partners for its Argentina LNG development.
