Australia’s east coast gas market is forecast to remain well supplied in the near term, according to the latest Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO).
However, the report stresses that continued investment in new gas projects is essential to prevent potential shortfalls from around 2030.
The 2026 GSOO, published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), outlines the latest outlook for gas supply and demand across eastern and south-eastern Australia.
It notes that current developments and existing reserves are sufficient to meet foreseeable short-term demand, aided by stable production from key fields and new supply coming online.
Beyond the end of the decade, however, the report highlights the risk of tightening supply as existing reserves decline and demand from households, manufacturers, and power generation continues.
Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said the improved short-term outlook confirms the importance of maintaining stable and competitive policy and tax settings to attract the investment needed in future supply.
She argued that higher or retrospective taxes on gas projects would discourage investment at a critical time for Australia’s energy security.
According to Australian Energy Producers, new or punitive tax measures could slow or halt investment in exploration and development, reducing the availability of gas for domestic use.
The organisation has warned that this would likely lead to tighter market conditions, higher wholesale and retail prices, and further cost-of-living pressures on households and businesses.
It could also create challenges for Australian industries reliant on reliable and affordable gas, including manufacturing and processing sectors.
The industry group noted that while international gas prices have experienced sharp increases over the past several years, Australian gas prices have remained relatively stable and comparatively low.
This stability, it said, reflects the country’s strong resource base and the long-term contracts and infrastructure supporting its supply chain.
Maintaining this advantage, according to producers, depends on ensuring continued policy certainty and investment confidence.
The GSOO findings also underscore the need for governments and industry to collaborate on policies such as the east coast gas reservation framework.
The policy aims to ensure adequate domestic supply from new developments, but industry participants argue that it must be structured in a way that supports competition and investment certainty rather than deterring project development.
The report comes at a time of ongoing volatility in global oil and gas markets, driven by geopolitical tensions and shifts in energy demand patterns.
Market analysts note that Australia’s transition toward renewable energy is advancing but that gas remains an important part of the national energy mix, supporting electricity reliability during periods of high demand and variable renewable generation.
With forecasts suggesting that east coast gas demand will remain steady through the 2020s, the industry and government face a critical window to secure new supply projects before existing fields decline.
The GSOO concludes that without continued exploration, development, and infrastructure investment, the region may face avoidable energy shortfalls and higher prices in the early 2030s.
