The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has unveiled its Australian Gas and LNG Tracker, an interactive visual tool that provides regularly updated data on the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry and trade.
The Tracker enables users to analyse Australia’s LNG flows, infrastructure, demand, and export capacity, drawing on data from sources such as Kpler and the Australian Energy Market Operator, alongside IEEFA’s own analysis, with updates provided every six months.
The latest data highlights that Australia’s LNG export sector consumes the vast majority of the gas produced in the country, with exports predominantly supplied to a small group of countries.
In 2024, China (33%), Japan (32%), South Korea (15%), and Taiwan (10%) together accounted for 90 per cent of Australia’s LNG exports, underscoring the sector’s reliance on a handful of key markets.
“Japan has historically been Australia’s largest LNG export market, but last year it was surpassed by China, which had dramatic import growth over the past decade,” said Joshua Runciman, Lead Analyst, Australian Gas at IEEFA.
Runciman detailed recent trends, stating: “Australia’s LNG exports to China increased by 8 per cent in 2024 following a 10 per cent increase in 2023 and a 31 per cent decrease in 2022.
“This compares with 6 per cent and 10 per cent decreases in exports to Japan in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
“Exports to South Korea and Taiwan increased by 12 per cent and 1 per cent respectively in 2024, partly offset by a 14 per cent fall in supply to other markets.”
Most Australian LNG projects have consistently operated at high utilisation rates — above 90 per cent nationally between 2021 and 2024 — exporting volumes beyond those required to meet long-term contracts.
This high utilisation is largely driven by strong spot export volumes, with 25 per cent of total exports in 2024 sold into spot markets, contributing to an imbalance between exports and domestic gas supply.
Periods of lower utilisation have generally coincided with new LNG projects coming online and ramping up to full production.
However, in non-growth periods, LNG facilities have maintained high utilisation as plant owners seek to recoup investment and minimise production costs.
Eastern Australia’s exposure to higher international LNG pricing has contributed to falling industrial gas demand, while Western Australia’s domestic gas reservation policy has so far shielded it from international price spikes.
However, rising prices in WA suggest the state could face similar challenges as the east in the future.
Looking ahead, Runciman noted: “We expect Australia’s contracted LNG volumes to fall considerably over the next 10 years. Without new LNG contracts, Australian LNG exporters will either be exposed to volatile LNG spot prices or reduced utilisation of their export facilities, which could potentially undermine LNG project financial returns.”
Australia’s LNG contract volumes are expected to remain relatively stable until 2030 before declining to 2040.
The expiry of these contracts is set to coincide with forecast supply shortages in Australia, potentially freeing up gas for domestic use if exporters accept lower plant utilisation.
Several new sale and purchase agreements are scheduled to commence in 2026, including contracts supported by Santos’s development of the Barossa gas field to backfill the Darwin LNG facility.
“These are just some of the trends and developments highlighted by our new Australian Gas and LNG Tracker.
“This tool provides users with a graphic illustration of the current and future outlook for the industry in this country.
“With regular updates planned, our aim is for it to become a key source of information and insights on LNG in Australia,” Runciman said.
The Australian Gas and LNG Tracker is now live and available for public use, offering a comprehensive, data-driven view of Australia’s evolving LNG landscape.
