Venezuela’s upstream oil sector is attracting its broadest pool of international operators and capital in decades, as established majors expand their footprints and new players enter under revised contractual frameworks, according to Rystad Energy.
If capital deployment, rig availability and oilfield services scale in line with requirements, the consultancy models Venezuelan crude production reaching around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030.
“The roster of companies now actively looking to expand or operate in Venezuela is genuinely different from anything we have seen in years,” said Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas, at Rystad Energy.
Chevron has added Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A to its portfolio and outlined more than $7 billion in investment over five years.
Eni has taken exclusive operatorship of Junin 5 under a new 25-year production participation contract, while Repsol has regained operational control at Petroquiriquire. Shell has re-entered through redevelopment agreements for Carito and Pirital.
New entrants include regional independent GeoPark, Texas-based Hunt Oil and Brazilian independent Fluxus Oil, Gas & Energy.
North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) has substantially expanded its existing position through a framework covering 17 producing and development areas.
Rystad favours investment programs tied to established operators and defined assets over larger ambitions requiring substantial external capital.
NABEP’s $100 billion figure represents a long-term funding requirement rather than committed near-term capital, and the company has not disclosed a detailed financing structure.
The more binding constraint is operational. Baker Hughes reported just two active drilling rigs in Venezuela as of August, against a Hydrocarbons Ministry target of around 93 rigs by 2028.
Rystad estimates activity would need to reach around 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 to support its modelled production pathway.
The oilfield services supply chain is beginning to rebuild, with SLB holding around 15 rigs in Venezuela that could be reactivated within a year.
Some of the newly identified opportunities were previously associated with Russian and Chinese operators, and Bansal said the ownership picture may not be settled.
“A number of newly identified opportunities were previously associated with Russian and Chinese operators, and further restructuring of some legacy positions remains possible as the new contractual framework develops,” Bansal added.
Near-term production growth will be brownfield-led, with incremental barrels coming from field rehabilitation, well reactivations and infill drilling across NABEP’s Lake Maracaibo portfolio, Chevron’s Petropiar and Petroboscan assets, Eni’s Corocoro field and GeoPark’s Bare block.
NABEP’s three production participation contracts show what renewed investment can deliver.
Through its involvement in the former Russian-linked Petrozamora operations around Lake Maracaibo, combined production from those assets appears to have risen from roughly 90,000 bpd at end-2024 to nearly 200,000 bpd today.
Greenfield-led growth is expected to follow in the 2030s, anchored by Chevron’s Ayacucho 8, Eni’s Junin 5 and NABEP’s newly awarded Orinoco blocks.
In Rystad’s modelled upside scenario, this combination could lift output to around 2.58 million bpd by 2035, with incremental volumes almost evenly split between brownfield and greenfield additions.
Further upside is possible as investor interest broadens.
Continental Resources has signed a preliminary agreement for Ayacucho 2, ExxonMobil is in discussions over a potential return, and TotalEnergies has signed an MoU with PDVSA covering new hydrocarbon opportunities.
A Turkish-linked investor is moving ahead with investment in the producing CEMA field, while Halliburton has signed agreements with Eneva and WESCA to pursue development opportunities.
Even so, the pace remains conditional on actual capital deployment and the country’s ability to rebuild drilling, services and infrastructure capacity.
