Shell has provided an update to its first-quarter 2025 outlook, offering insights into its expected performance across key business segments.
The final results are scheduled for release on May 2, 2025, and the outlook remains subject to adjustments during the finalisation process.
Shell anticipates production levels between 910-950 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d), slightly higher than Q4 2024 production of 905 kboe/d.
However, LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to decline to 6.4-6.8 million tonnes (MT) due to unplanned maintenance and adverse weather conditions, including cyclones in Australia.
Adjusted earnings will reflect a pre-tax depreciation range of US$1.2-US$1.6 billion and a taxation charge of US$0.7-US$1 billion.
Production for the Upstream segment is forecasted at 1,790-1,890 kboe/d, down from Q4 2024 levels of 1,859 kboe/d.
Exploration well write-offs are estimated at approximately US$0.1 billion, while joint ventures and associates are expected to contribute around US$0.2 billion in profit or loss.
This segment also reflects the completion of Shell’s SPDC divestment in Nigeria during March 2025.
Sales volumes are projected at 2,500-2,900 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), slightly lower than Q4 2024 levels of 2,795 kb/d.
While Mobility and Lubricants results are expected to remain steady, contributions from Sectors & Decarbonisation are anticipated to decline.
Refinery utilisation is forecasted to improve significantly to 83-87 per cent, compared to Q4 2024’s 76 per cent.
Indicative refining margins are expected to rise from US$5.5/barrel in Q4 2024 to US$6.2/barrel in Q1 2025, while indicative chemicals margins will decrease from US$138/tonne to US$126/tonne due to market pressures.
Trading and optimisation results are anticipated to be notably higher than Q4 levels.
Adjusted earnings for Renewables and Energy Solutions are expected to range between -US$0.3 billion and US$0.3 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in this segment.
At the corporate level, adjusted earnings are projected between -US$0.6 billion and -US$0.4 billion for Q1 2025.
Shell’s cash flow from operating activities (CFFO) is expected to be influenced by significant working capital movements ranging from -US$5 billion to US$0 billion, including deferred settlements for German Mineral Oil Taxes worth approximately US$0.5 billion.
Additionally, net debt will increase by around US$1.5 billion due to loan facilities related to the SPDC sale and lease additions from the Pavilion acquisition.
Shell emphasised that these figures represent preliminary estimates and may vary upon finalisation of the quarterly results.
The company also highlighted external factors such as market volatility, geopolitical risks, and environmental challenges that could impact its performance.
The full financial results for Q1 2025 will provide a clearer picture of Shell’s operational performance as it navigates global energy market dynamics and continues its transition toward cleaner energy solutions.
