ExxonMobil has lifted its earnings and cash flow forecasts in its five-year plan to 2030, while lowering its investments in low-carbon ventures in the same period.
The U.S. petroleum company lifted its forecasts on the back of a stronger product portfolio, lower operating costs and stronger contributions from upstream assets.
ExxonMobil now expects US$25 billion in earnings growth, and US$35 billion in cash flow growth compared to 2024 on the same constant price and margin price basis, a US$5 billion improvement in both metrics compared to its previous 2030 plan.
Earnings growth is projected to average 13 per cent per year through 2030, with double-digit cash flow growth and higher per-share growth, driven by ongoing share repurchases.
“Several years ago, when we began to transform this company, we did so with one objective: to fully unlock our competitive advantages. Today, our transformation is driving industry-leading results,” according to Darren Woods, ExxonMobil chairman and CEO.
“We’re also beating our 2030 emission-reduction plans across the portfolio.
“We’ve already achieved our plans for reducing GHG and flaring intensity and expect to reach our planned 2030 methane intensity reductions next year.”
ExxonMobil is pursuing approximately US$20 billion of lower-emission investments between 2025 and 2030, with approximately 60 per cent focused on reducing emissions for third-party customers.
The company had previously forecast US$30 billion in spending over the same period.
Investments in low-carbon solutions will be “contingent on the development of supportive policy and broader market formation, balancing risks and opportunities to ensure strong returns and delivery of shareholder value,” according to the company.
Meanwhile, the company now anticipates more than US$14 billion in upstream earnings growth, up US$5 billion compared to its previous guidance.
The increase reflects stronger Permian growth – underpinned by technology advancements and improved capital efficiency – as well as further structural cost reductions and base portfolio optimisation.
ExxonMobil expects product solutions to deliver more than US$9 billion in earnings growth by 2030.
Approximately US$4 billion in earnings uplift will come from projects already online or underway, with 60 per cent of that growth de-risked through projects that have already started up.
