This year’s bp Energy Outlook explores the key trends and uncertainties surrounding the energy transition out to 2050. The three main scenarios considered in the Outlook – Net Zero, Accelerated, and New Momentum – have been updated to take account of two major developments over the past year: the Russia-Ukraine war and the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. 

The Outlook’s three main scenarios are designed to explore the range of possible outcomes for the global energy system over the next 30 years.

bp’s chief economist, Spencer Dale, said: “Global energy polices and discussions in recent years have been focused on the importance of decarbonising the energy system and the transition to net zero.  The events of the past year have served as a reminder to us all that the transition also needs to take account of the security and affordability of energy. Any successful and enduring energy transition needs to address all three elements of the so-called energy trilemma: secure, affordable and lower carbon.”

“The events of the past year have highlighted the complexity and interconnectedness of the global energy system. The increased focus on energy security as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war has the potential to accelerate the energy transition as countries seek to increase access to domestically produced energy, much of which is likely to come from renewables and other non-fossil fuels. But the events also show how relatively small disruptions to energy supplies can lead to severe economic and social costs, highlighting the importance that the transition away from hydrocarbons is orderly, such that the demand for hydrocarbons falls in line with available supplies.”

Three scenarios:

Accelerated and Net Zero explore how different elements of the energy system might change in pathways that achieve substantial reductions in carbon emissions by 2050 by around 75 per cent in Accelerated and over 95 per cent in Net Zero. Both scenarios assume a significant tightening in climate policies globally. Net Zero also includes a shift in societal behaviour and preferences to further support gains in energy efficiency and the adoption of low-carbon energy.

New Momentum is designed to reflect the current broad trajectory of the world’s energy system. In doing so, it places weight on the marked increase in government ambitions and pledges for decarbonisation that have been seen in recent years. In this scenario, global carbon emissions peak in the 2020s and by around 2050 are around 30 per cent below 2019 levels.

The full 2023 Energy Outlook can be seen at: bp.com/energyoutlook