The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Asian refinery cutbacks have removed more than one million barrels per day from global supply, tipping Europe’s jet fuel market from tight to acutely short.
The shock is reshaping airline schedules, inflating ticket prices, and pushing regional inventories toward a breaking point.
The Hormuz closure has eliminated approximately 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Middle East refinery exports to international markets.
Asian refinery run cuts have compounded the crisis, removing a further 500,000 bpd.
Together, the two disruptions represent a supply loss of roughly 10 per cent of the expected 2026 global jet demand of eight million bpd.
The consequences are showing up in prices and stocks alike.
Jet fuel in Europe is trading at more than double its 2025 average, a gain that outstrips even the 70 per cent-plus rise in Brent crude.
At the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, inventories have fallen to 579,000 tonnes, the lowest level in six years, leaving approximately six weeks of supply cover.
Rystad Energy warns that on current trends, European stockpiles will breach the critical 23-day cover threshold by June, a level widely regarded in commodity markets as a signal of acute physical stress.
Susan Bell, Senior Vice President, Commodities – Oil at Rystad Energy, said the scale of the disruption demands a frank assessment of what available supply can and cannot do.
“Europe is not facing a tight market,” said Bell.
“It is facing a structural supply hole.
“Record US Gulf Coast exports of 110,000 bpd into Europe and a handful of Dangote cargoes are welcome, but they cover less than half the deficit.
“A ceasefire would move futures fast, but physical jet markets will not normalise until at least 60 days after the strait reopens.
“Airlines know this: they are cutting flights and loading surcharges of US$50 to US$60 per short-haul ticket, and those prices will be sticky long after tensions in the Middle East ease.”
The structural vulnerability of Europe’s position reflects its heavy dependence on imported jet fuel.
The region sources more than 30 per cent of its supply from abroad, with the Middle East historically accounting for around 65 per cent of those imports and Asia a further 22 per cent, both channels now constrained simultaneously.
Atlantic Basin flows are filling some of the gap.
April inflows from the US Gulf Coast have reached a record 110,000 bpd, and West African volumes are contributing additional barrels.
Combined, however, these flows cover just over half the lost Middle East supply.
Rystad models show stocks breaching the 23-day threshold by June even under a 50 per cent replacement scenario, and still falling to that level by August if replacement improves to 75 per cent.
Demand destruction is providing only partial relief.
European jet demand is running approximately 150,000 bpd below 2025 levels, as carriers cut routes rendered unprofitable by prices of around US$4.50 per gallon.
Lufthansa has cancelled 20,000 flights.
Spirit Airlines has ceased operations.
United Airlines has warned passengers of ticket price increases of up to 20 per cent.
Rystad has revised its 2026 global jet demand growth forecast from 400,000 bpd year-on-year to approximately 200,000 bpd, a figure that turns negative if the strait remains closed beyond mid-June.
Even a prompt resolution of the Hormuz standoff would not offer immediate relief. Physical markets would require approximately 60 days to normalise after reopening.
Of the estimated 300,000 bpd of jet supply lost to refinery damage in the region, perhaps half could recover relatively quickly, with Asian throughputs expected to ramp within 30 to 60 days of crude flows resuming.
Until that point, traders and airlines alike are operating in a replacement-barrel market, and replacement barrels remain scarce.
