Reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require Australia to transform its energy system at an unprecedented pace and scale using all available options and technologies.

This was one of the insights outlined in the Net Zero Australia study released today by a research partnership between the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland, Princeton University and international management consultancy Nous Group.

The Future Energy Exports Cooperative Research Centre (FEnEx CRC) also provided funding and academic support.

FEnEx CRC CEO Professor Eric May said the study provides detailed scenarios mapping out possible future pathways for Australian energy exports.

“It firmly underlines the importance of the work we have underway at FEnEx CRC to assist the decarbonisation of Australia’s existing energy exports such as liquified natural gas and accelerate clean energies such as hydrogen and ammonia,” he said.

“It has also highlighted the importance of accelerating efforts in advancing permanent carbon storage and confirmed that we will need a doubling of our gas-fired power capacity to support renewables and energy storage”.

Professor May said Net Zero Australia provides a unique and highly detailed insight into the opportunities and challenges for Australia in transitioning to net zero emissions.

“Net Zero Australia has outlined that, if we want to get serious about tackling the energy transition, we need to invest more in new technologies, or combinations of technologies, that can quickly and affordably reduce emissions,” Professor May said.

“To get to net zero while maintaining our standard of living and providing energy security to our regional neighbours, this report also makes it very clear that Australia and its policy-makers and key industries need to make big changes – and fast if it is to happen by 2050.”

Professor May said Net Zero Australia set out six detailed scenarios for how Australia could achieve Net Zero by 2050 and has outlined 12 key findings for policy-makers and the private sector.

“A key takeaway is the massive scale of the investment needed across all scenarios. Another is that using all available technical solutions will be essential. The study confirms the goal is achievable, particularly if we are able to both deploy renewables and implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) at unprecedented but plausible scales” he said.

Professor May said the report highlights the need to accelerate support for research and development on a range of new technologies that can reduce emissions for existing energies such as natural gas as well as accelerate development of commercial scale hydrogen.

Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA) said the importance of gas and carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) in the report echoed the findings from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

APPEA Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said: “The analysis finds that even with unprecedented roll-out of renewable energy, gas power generation capacity will need to double by 2050 to keep the lights on and businesses operating.

“Natural gas will also be needed to power industry and manufacturing and to generate low-carbon hydrogen in conjunction with CCUS.”

The report highlights the need for Australia to establish a large CCUS industry to address emissions from hard-to-abate industry and for carbon dioxide removal – generating negative emissions.

“The oil and gas industry has called for a national CCUS roadmap to provide clear policy direction, progress carbon management hubs and promote Australia as a regional CO2 storage leader. The report shows that government leadership on CCUS is needed as a matter of urgency.”

To get to net zero, the analysis requires the massive deployment of renewable energy – in the order of 40 times today’s total National Electricity Market capacity deployed by 2050.

Ms McCulloch said: “If renewables deployment cannot reach the levels outlined, the role for gas with CCUS in power generation is even greater. CCUS deployment would increase from 150 MtCO2 per year to 1,000 MtCO2 per year in 2050, and LNG exports would increase to multiple times of current levels.”

“All technologies will be needed if we are to reach our climate change targets while minimising the cost-of-living impact for Australian households and businesses and keeping our manufacturing sectors competitive. The analysis finds that reaching net zero will require $7 to $9 trillion of capital investment to 2060 with capital costs highest in scenarios where the use of gas and CCUS is restricted.”

The study’s key insights include:

• Australia has the resources to build a new clean export industry
• Australia needs to grow renewables by 40 times if it is to provide the required scale of domestic and exported energy
• CCS will play a significant role in all modelled scenarios, with natural gas providing crucial energy security unless fossil fuels are not permitted
• Unprecedented capital investment ($7-9 trillion to 2060) is needed
• A large workforce of up to 800,000 by 2060 with new skills will need to be grown across the nation