Australia must overhaul its gas market settings to safeguard national energy security and restore investor confidence amid escalating global instability, Australian Energy Producers CEO Samantha McCulloch told the 2026 Australian Domestic Gas Outlook Conference.
In her address, McCulloch said the world was facing “the greatest global energy security threat in history”, citing recent warnings from International Energy Agency head Dr Fatih Birol.
She argued that the conflict‑driven volatility in global oil and gas markets could take “months, or years” to stabilise, underscoring the need for Australia to strengthen domestic resilience.
McCulloch noted that fossil fuels continue to dominate global energy systems, accounting for around 80 per cent of primary energy consumption worldwide and 91 per cent in Australia.
She contrasted Australia’s stable domestic gas prices with the volatility seen in global fuel markets, arguing that the country’s strong gas supply has protected households and businesses from the worst of the international price shock.
“East coast gas prices remain the lowest they’ve been in years, and almost a third of international LNG prices,” she said.
“The events of the past month should be a wake‑up call that we cannot let our gas industry become the next essential sector to be driven out of Australia.”
With Australia importing around 90 per cent of its liquid fuel needs due to decades of declining domestic oil production and refinery closures, she warned that Australia must not repeat this trajectory with gas.
McCulloch strongly criticised proposals for an additional 25 per cent tax on gas exports, arguing it would undermine investment and jeopardise energy security.
Independent modelling from Wood Mackenzie, she said, shows the proposed tax could push effective tax rates as high as 90 per cent for some projects, making Australia less competitive than major energy‑producing nations including the United States, Qatar and Canada.
She pointed to the United Kingdom’s Energy Profits Levy as a cautionary example, saying the windfall tax contributed to a steep decline in domestic investment and increased reliance on imported gas.
Investment uncertainty threatens future supply
McCulloch said exploration activity in Australia is already at historically low levels, with regulatory uncertainty and slow approvals contributing to declining investment.
Without new supply, she warned, states such as Victoria and New South Wales may be forced to rely on imported LNG — a move the ACCC has cautioned could expose consumers to higher international prices.
“Imposing another new tax on the industry would send a very clear message to the world that Australia is closed for business,” she said.
McCulloch further noted that the federal government’s ongoing Gas Market Review offers an opportunity to create a stable, long‑term regulatory environment that supports investment certainty.
ACCC has previously found that the current patchwork of interventions has “exacerbated the risk of domestic supply shortfalls”.
The latest Gas Statement of Opportunities shows the east coast market remains well supplied in the near term, with forecast shortfalls pushed back to 2030.
McCulloch said this window should be used to design a prospective east coast gas reservation scheme linked to new supply — a model she argued could support both affordability and investment.
“Getting the design of a reservation scheme right will be critical,” she said.
“We have time to ensure the policy framework supports a competitive and well‑supplied domestic gas market.”
