Shell’s second-quarter 2026 update points to a mixed but largely resilient operating picture, with gas and refining set to do most of the heavy lifting when results are published on July 30, 2026.
The company’s outlook suggests stronger trading in gas and products, firmer refining conditions and near-full refinery utilisation, even as Middle East tensions weigh on some volumes.
Integrated gas is expected to remain the main pressure point, with production forecast at 610,000 to 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, down from 909,000 in the first quarter, as the Middle East conflict affects Qatari volumes.
LNG liquefaction volumes are projected at 7.4 million to 7.8 million tonnes, while Shell said trading and optimisation should be significantly higher than in the first quarter.
Upstream output is expected to be broadly steady at 1.75 million to 1.85 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, compared with 1.843 million in the previous quarter.
That points to a stable production base even as the company navigates a volatile geopolitical backdrop and a market still sensitive to supply interruptions.
In downstream, Shell’s marketing sales volumes are forecast at 2.55 million to 2.65 million barrels a day, roughly in line with the prior quarter, while adjusted earnings are expected to hold near first-quarter levels.
The bigger story is in chemicals and products, where Shell expects refinery utilisation to rise to around 100 per cent from 99 per cent in the first quarter.
The company also signalled a stronger margin environment in refining, with its indicative refining margin rising to about US$20 a barrel from US$17 a barrel in the first quarter.
Indicative chemicals margin is also forecast to improve sharply to around US$240 per tonne from US$139 per tonne, although Shell noted that realised margins are likely to be lower because of market dislocations.
Shell’s update comes against a backdrop of heightened volatility in commodity prices and ongoing conflict risks in the Middle East, both of which continue to shape the company’s operating outlook.
Even so, the guidance points to a business leaning more on core oil and gas operations, with gas trading, upstream stability and stronger refining economics expected to support the quarter.
The company said full-year price and margin sensitivities may not reflect realised movements in any single quarter, underlining how quickly conditions can shift across the energy market.
