GlobalData’s latest survey has revealed widespread uncertainty across the oil and gas sector regarding the consequences of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs on selected countries and commodities.
Expansion of oil and gas has been a central plank of Trump’s second-term agenda, yet his administration’s tariff measures, while largely excluding crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum products, have triggered volatility across financial and commodity markets.
A pattern of frequent introductions, reversals and adjustments to tariffs over the past six months has led to mixed signals, with fears of inflation and slowing global growth weighing on oil prices.
The GlobalData poll, conducted between May and August 2025 with 236 participants, reflects the prevailing uncertainty within the industry:
- 26 per cent of respondents expect the impact of tariffs to persist for six months to one year.
- 24 per cent of respondents believe the disruption could extend longer, up to three years.
- 14 per cent of respondents foresee a more prolonged effect spanning five years, raising concerns that long-term capital plans could be distorted.
- 13 per cent of respondents anticipate only a short-term impact of six months or less, provided that policies stabilise.
- 22 per cent of respondents indicated no clear opinion, emphasising the unique and difficult-to-assess nature of this policy environment.
The survey highlights a fractured outlook among energy professionals. While Trump’s tariffs have spared direct imports of oil and gas, analysts note that the indirect effects — from trade tensions to inflation risks — could reshape demand and investment patterns.
The shifting trade environment has made planning new developments exceptionally difficult, with projects more vulnerable to policy swings.
GlobalData noted that the breadth of responses underscores the challenge facing the global energy industry as it attempts to balance short-term profitability with long-term growth strategies.
For many companies, the prospect of tariffs influencing investment horizons of up to five years could pressure strategic decisions across exploration, production, and downstream activities.
