The Middle East is poised to surpass Asia and become the world’s second-largest gas producer in 2025, trailing only North America, according to research and analysis by Rystad Energy.
This regional transformation is being propelled by a sustained 15 per cent increase in gas production since 2020, driven by the resolve of Middle Eastern producers to monetise their vast reserves and expand export capacity to address robust global demand.
Currently, the region produces about 70 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of gas.
With major projects underway in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE, this output is forecast to rise by 30 per cent by 2030 and 34 per cent by 2035.
By 2030, an additional 20 Bcfd is expected to come online, a supply roughly equivalent to half of Europe’s current gas demand.
However, this projection depends on Brent crude prices holding at US$70 per barrel and oil-indexed gas prices remaining between US$7 and US$9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
Should prices fall below US$6 per MMBtu, several new projects could be delayed, and overall volume growth by 2030 could fall from 30 per cent to 20 per cent or less, depending on the severity and duration of the downturn.
To maximise this growth, the Middle East is preparing for a significant rise in gas exports.
By 2030, the region is expected to have an additional 10 Bcfd of gas available for export, strategically positioning itself as a key supplier to both Europe — seeking to decrease reliance on Russian energy — and the thriving markets of Asia.
This export expansion is underpinned by a steady annual production increase of about 6 per cent, with total regional output set to reach 90 Bcfd by the end of the decade.
“About half of the 20 Bcfd new supply will meet rising domestic demand, particularly from industrial users, while the rest will be available for export,” said Mrinal Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst, Upstream Research at Rystad Energy.
“As more long-term gas contracts are signed and export volumes rise, the Middle East is on track to become a key energy hub for countries seeking stable and dependable sources of natural gas.”
A crucial factor in the region’s competitive advantage is its ability to develop new projects capable of producing gas at less than US$5 per thousand cubic feet.
The Gulf trio — Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia — are leading this surge. Qatar’s ambitious North Field expansion alone is projected to lift its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity by 80 per cent, from 77 to 142 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by the end of the decade, maintaining a breakeven price under US$6 per MMBtu.
“A drop below $6 per MMBtu is not ideal for investments, but Middle Eastern projects remain highly resilient due to their low breakeven costs, typically below US$5 per thousand cubic feet,” added Rahul Choudhary, Vice President, Upstream Research at Rystad Energy.
“Even in a prolonged low-price environment, we expect strong production growth from the region. While some final investment decisions could be delayed in such a scenario, the overall impact on output should be limited.”
Looking ahead to 2028, the Middle East is set to add 60 Mtpa of new LNG capacity, accounting for a major share of Rystad Energy’s anticipated global increase of 150 Mtpa.
Qatar is leading the charge, with 48 Mtpa stemming from its North Field East and North Field South projects, while the UAE will contribute 10 Mtpa through its Ruwais LNG project.
Notably, TotalEnergies is developing the Marsa LNG project in Oman with a capacity of 1 Mtpa. These undertakings are projected to require investments exceeding US$50 billion, underscoring the strategic intent to secure a dominant role in the global LNG market.
Among Middle Eastern producers, Iran currently leads with approximately 25 Bcfd, followed by Qatar with 16 Bcfd and Saudi Arabia with 8 Bcfd.
Iranian output, which stagnated in recent years under Western sanctions, is expected to rise modestly by 6 per cent to around 26 Bcfd by the decade’s end, primarily sourced from its legacy South Pars field, which saw partial shutdowns amid recent regional conflict.
In contrast, Qatar is on track for almost 50 per cent production growth — up to 24 Bcfd—driven by its North Field expansion.
Beyond these two leaders, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are projected to each add 3 Bcfd, and Israel’s production is anticipated to increase by 1.5 Bcfd after further development at the Leviathan and Tamar fields.
While Iran is expected to maintain its status as the region’s largest gas producer in 2030, projections indicate Qatar will overtake it in the early 2030s.
The UAE and Qatar are advancing substantial capacity expansions that will solidify the Middle East’s status as a future cornerstone of global LNG trade.
Most of the new LNG supply from these nations is destined for buyers in Asia and Europe, with contracts showing a marked preference for Asian markets.
Sales and purchase agreements have recently surged, peaking at about 21 Mtpa between 2027 and 2030, with Chinese national oil companies and global energy majors taking leading roles as buyers.
