In the wake of the U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the capture of former president Nicolás Maduro, global attention has turned toward the nation’s vast but neglected oil reserves.
Rystad Energy’s latest market analysis, authored by Artem Abramov, Aditya Ravi, and Radhika Bansal, projects that reviving Venezuela’s oil sector to its former output peak of three million barrels per day (bpd) would require massive capital infusion and political stabilisation.
According to Rystad’s model, Venezuela would need to deploy around US$183 billion in oil and gas investment over the next 15 years — the equivalent of an entire year’s worth of North American upstream spending — to rebuild production infrastructure and output capacity.
The scale of investment underscores the challenges of reversing decades of underinvestment, sanctions, and systemic decline.
Currently, Venezuela produces about 1.1 million bpd, far below the 3.5 million bpd highs of the 1970s and the 3 million bpd achieved in the late 1990s before years of mismanagement and political upheaval took their toll.
Rystad estimates that maintaining the present production level would alone demand US$53 billion in upstream and infrastructure capital over the next decade and a half.
A modest increase of 300,000 bpd could be achieved within three years with limited expenditure, but any move beyond 1.4 million bpd would require sustained annual investment of US$8–9 billion, continuing through 2040.
The Norwegian consultancy envisions a stepwise recovery.
Under its “Back to 3 Million bpd” scenario, production could reach 2 million bpd by 2032 and return to 3 million bpd by 2040, assuming new investments begin as early as 2026.
Such a turnaround, however, hinges on fundamental political reforms, renewed confidence among international oil companies (IOCs), and substantial policy support from Washington.
At least US$30–35 billion in foreign capital would need to be committed by 2028 to make the scenario feasible.
Historically, Venezuela’s national oil company, PDVSA, has shouldered much of the country’s energy investment burden.
However, years of mismanagement, debt, sanctions, and equipment deterioration leave it ill-equipped to finance such a revival without outside help.
Rystad’s analysis also highlights the vast opportunity — and risk — for the global oilfield services sector.
Of the projected US$183 billion in total spending, about US$156 billion would flow to service providers.
The most capital-intensive segments include fabrication and construction (about $41 billion) and equipment, materials, and logistics, each exceeding US$10 billion in projected demand.
Yet the country’s depleted industrial base could create inflationary pressures as activity scales up, further complicating project execution.
Whether Venezuela can attract meaningful investment depends on geopolitical stability and credible reforms.
Reviving old oil fields and rebuilding pipelines and upgraders would require broad structural change — including a restructured PDVSA, new hydrocarbon laws, and guarantees to foreign investors wary of past expropriations.
Rystad Energy’s assessment reveals both promise and peril: Venezuela holds the geological capacity to reemerge as a top global crude supplier, but doing so would demand sustained international confidence, transparent governance, and a rebuilding effort on a scale unseen in decades.
