Africa is positioned to remain one of the largest contributors to global conventional refinery capacity additions between 2026 and 2030, driven by a robust pipeline of new-build and expansion projects across the continent.
Rising domestic fuel demand and a persistent push to reduce reliance on imported refined products are the primary forces shaping this wave of investment, according to a new industry outlook.
The region is expected to account for a substantial share of upcoming refinery capacity additions worldwide over the coming years.
This reflects a broader continental strategy to strengthen domestic refining infrastructure rather than continue depending heavily on refined petroleum imports, a vulnerability that has long exposed African economies to global price volatility and supply disruptions.
New build refineries are set to play a central role in this expansion. Several African nations are actively developing greenfield refining facilities aimed at boosting local processing capacity.
These projects are designed not only to meet growing consumption but also to create a more self-sufficient energy sector capable of supporting industrial and economic growth.
Expansion projects at existing facilities will complement this new build activity.
By adding new units and upgrading processing capabilities, established refineries across the continent are increasing their output without the extended timelines typically associated with building entirely new plants.
This dual approach, combining new construction with facility upgrades, is expected to accelerate the pace of capacity growth through the end of the decade.
Nigeria and Algeria stand out as particularly active markets for expansion work.
In both countries, refiners are simultaneously pursuing upgrades to current operations while advancing the development of new refining facilities, positioning them as key drivers of regional capacity gains.
Nigeria is anticipated to remain the single largest contributor to Africa’s refinery development pipeline.
The country has multiple major projects moving through various stages of development, among them the Lagos I CDU Expansion I, which ranks as one of the largest upcoming refinery projects on the continent in terms of capacity additions.
This project alone is expected to boost Nigeria’s refining output, supporting national efforts to satisfy domestic fuel needs through greater local processing rather than imports.
Beyond Nigeria, other countries are contributing to the continental pipeline. Algeria and Egypt both have projects advancing at various stages.
Algeria in particular holds the largest number of expansion projects in the region alongside Nigeria, with efforts focused on increasing capacity across refining and other processing units.
The overall project pipeline spans a range of development phases.
The largest share of projects are already under construction, while a number of others remain in feasibility studies or awaiting regulatory approval.
This distribution suggests that while momentum is building, the bulk of new capacity is likely to materialise closer to the end of the decade, as projects move from planning into execution.
Taken together, the combination of new facility construction and upgrades to existing refining assets points to a steady, multi-year build-out of Africa’s refining sector.
Industry analysts note that sustained investment in this space will be critical for the continent’s long-term energy security and economic development.
