Asia is set to lead global growth in conventional refinery capacity, accounting for over 35 per cent of the total capacity additions by 2030, driven by rising energy demand and refinery modernisation in emerging economies, particularly India, China, and Pakistan.
China is expected to dominate the region’s capacity expansions, contributing over a quarter of Asia’s additions by 2030.
Nearly 80 per cent of China’s new refinery capacity will come from new-build projects such as the Caofeidian V refinery, operated by Hebei Xinhua Petrochemical, slated to commence in 2029 with a capacity of 401,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Other significant projects like Gulei and Lianyungang II further highlight China’s focus on boosting domestic supply and export capacity.
India follows closely, projected to add nearly 2.3 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) by 2030, predominantly through the expansion of existing refineries.
Major projects include the Vadinar CDU Expansion operated by Nayara Energy, expected to start next year, alongside the Ramayapatnam new-build and Panipat and Paradip CDU expansions.
Expansion projects make up about 70 per cent of India’s anticipated capacity growth.
Pakistan ranks third with nearly 1.5 mbbl/d of added refinery capacity by 2030, primarily from new-build projects.
The Larkana refinery, owned and operated by Pakistan State Oil, is a key project planned to begin operations in 2026 with a capacity of 400,000 bpd.
This regional surge in refinery capacity aligns with strategic priorities to ensure energy security while meeting rising domestic consumption.
Asia’s share in global refinery expansions reflects substantial investments and ongoing modernisation efforts across these key emerging markets, reinforcing the continent’s pivotal role in the global energy landscape.
Further insights and detailed analyses are available in GlobalData’s report on Conventional Refinery New Build and Expansion Projects, which tracks developments by type, stage, country, and forecast to 2030.
References from recent reports underscore Asia’s dominance in refinery capacity growth and highlight the strategic importance of these projects in meeting both domestic and export demands.
