Brent crude oil futures surged to US$67 per barrel this week, rebounding sharply from early May’s dramatic lows of $60 per barrel, despite OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia’s commitments to add more barrels to the market.

The price swings underscore a period of heightened volatility, with OPEC+’s recent decision to accelerate output hikes sending shockwaves through global energy markets.

Earlier in May, Brent prices dipped below US$60 per barrel following OPEC+’s announcement to boost production by 410,000 barrels per day starting in June — a move that marked a significant departure from the group’s previous strategy of restricting output to support prices.

Analysts say the policy shift, combined with global demand uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions, has fundamentally altered the supply-demand dynamics for oil.

While headlines have focused on Alberta wildfires and US-China trade progress, experts argue that OPEC+’s decision-making remains the most critical factor influencing oil prices heading into the summer.

Mukesh Sahdev, Global Head of Commodity Markets – Oil at Rystad Energy, said: “While the market continues to seek direction from geopolitics and macro-level trade agreements, the fundamentals remain in control.

“Supply-demand balances are still very tight, signalled by forward timespreads in backwardation for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

“Rystad Energy has estimated since last year that backwardation wouldn’t be disappearing anytime soon, and OPEC+ is in a strong position to keep the market away from contango while managing price stability.

Sahdev noted that recent market developments have validated Rystad Energy’s outlook, and the firm expects these conditions to persist, adding that concerns about OPEC+ pursuing a price war or aggressively seeking market share are overstated.

He explained that OPEC+ is strategically raising production targets during the high-demand summer months to create flexibility for potential output cuts later in the year if market fundamentals weaken.

Priya Walia, Vice President, Commodity Markets – Oil at Rystad, added: “Overall, our estimates indicate that the actual flow of expert barrels is likely to be lower than announced production increases, which would lead to real impacts on the market.”

Looking ahead, Rystad Energy projects Brent prices to remain rangebound between US$65 and US$70 per barrel in the coming weeks, with OPEC+ expected to continue calibrating production in response to evolving market fundamentals.

The group’s ability to balance compliance and flexibility will be closely watched as the oil market navigates an uncertain summer.