A newly signed oil agreement between the United States and Venezuela covers 17 development projects containing an estimated 65 billion barrels of recoverable crude, according to a market analysis from Rystad Energy.
The deal spans greenfield opportunities in the Orinoco Belt and brownfield redevelopments around Lake Maracaibo, marking one of the most significant shifts in Venezuela’s oil sector in years.
Rystad Energy’s analysis suggests the agreement could meaningfully reshape Venezuela’s long-term production trajectory, though the firm cautions that any recovery will likely be gradual, led initially by brownfield projects, and subject to considerable political, contractual, and execution risk.
Radhika Bansal, senior vice president for Latin America oil and gas at Rystad Energy, said the agreement improves conditions for developing Venezuela’s resources through more competitive fiscal terms and a clearer pathway for international capital.
She noted that investors evaluating multi-decade projects need confidence that contracts signed today will hold under future governments.
“The political reaction inside the country, with criticism coming from both Chavista and opposition circles, is a signal that durability is not guaranteed,” Bansal said.
“Our base case is a gradual, brownfield-led recovery in the near term, with Orinoco greenfield production only becoming meaningful from around 2035.”
Venezuela’s oil production once peaked above three million barrels per day but had declined to roughly 1.1 million bpd by 2025 after years of underinvestment and infrastructure decay.
The new 17-project framework identifies nine brownfield redevelopments and eight Orinoco greenfield projects.
Rystad expects the earliest production gains to come from brownfield assets, where existing wells and facilities offer a quicker path back online.
Under the firm’s projections, brownfield output could climb from about 157,000 bpd in 2027 to 680,000 bpd by 2030, and reach around 740,000 bpd in the early to mid 2030s.
That pace hinges on resolving operational bottlenecks such as the return of rigs and oilfield services, well workovers, infrastructure repairs, and securing diluent supplies needed for Orinoco’s extra heavy crude.
Meaningful greenfield production in the Orinoco Belt is not expected until around 2035, according to Rystad, with output climbing to roughly 840,000 bpd by 2040 and nearing 2 million bpd by 2050.
Combined with brownfield gains, total Venezuelan output could reach 2.3 million bpd by 2035 and surpass 3 million bpd by 2050.
Investment tied to the deal is similarly backloaded, with an estimated $21 billion flowing in between 2027 and 2035, followed by roughly $64 billion between 2036 and 2040.
Proposed fiscal terms for the greenfield projects, including a minimum royalty of 16 per cent and a corporate tax rate of 34 per cent, could lower project breakeven costs by 7 to 13 per cent under Rystad’s modelling, though the firm notes this alone would not make Venezuela fully competitive against other global upstream investment opportunities.
The agreement has already stirred political controversy within Venezuela, drawing protests in Caracas and criticism from both government-aligned and opposition factions.
Analysts warn that a future administration with a new electoral mandate could push to renegotiate fiscal terms or revisit development rights, introducing risk for companies weighing long-term investment decisions.
Venezuela is also reportedly weighing an exit from OPEC as its ties with Washington strengthen.
For now, such a move would carry mostly symbolic weight, since OPEC production quotas are unlikely to limit the country’s initial output recovery.
If Venezuelan production rebuilds substantially over time, however, the country could become a meaningful, independent source of global supply outside the group’s coordination.
The deal also marks a notable geopolitical shift by displacing China, previously Venezuela’s largest crude buyer and a major creditor, a change with implications reaching well beyond the energy sector.
