According to the latest Resources and Energy Quarterly, Australian resource and energy export earnings are forecast to be $417 billion in 2023–24, down from a record $466 billion in 2022–23 following a spike in energy prices.
Australia’s LNG export revenues are expected to decline from $72 billion in 2023-24 to $65 billion in 2024-25, and then settle at $50-55 billion in the period from 2025-26 to 2028-29. Lower prices will drive the falls.
Export volumes are expected to hold close to 80 Mt annually during this period but may decrease in the latter years as producing reserves start to deplete.
Meanwhile, the US became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023, and has begun 2024 on a strong note. US export growth is expected to account for almost half of global growth in LNG exports over the next five years, with US exports reaching over 150 Mt by the final year of the outlook period.
Australian Energy Producers said the report showed the Australia government should not miss the opportunity of continuing to be a leading gas supplier in the Asia-Pacific when it finalises its Future Gas Strategy.
Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said LNG was still delivering substantial benefits, despite resources returns broadly declining after the recent peak of the cycle.
LNG exports hit a record $92 billion in the 2022-23 financial year, helping deliver over $16 billion of taxation to governments while the industry spent another $45 billion directly with Australian businesses.
Ms McCulloch said: “Australia’s oil and gas industry is committed to ensuring that our LNG exports deliver substantial returns to Australia while underpinning our domestic energy security.
“Our exports help governments build hospitals and schools and fund policies such as cost-of-living relief.”
The report noted there may be pressure on production in the future because gas exploration was low for the past five years – with a risk the current pipeline of gas projects becomes insufficient.
“The Future Gas Strategy must recognise the critical roles of Australian gas in the decades to come –both domestically and in our region,” Ms McCulloch said.
“New gas supply is critical for domestic and international markets where our valued customers rely on our energy and help support thousands of jobs and pay for public services and infrastructure in Australia.
“Export returns like these show Australia must secure the opportunity of LNG, with Southeast Asia alone expected to increase LNG demand by a factor of 10 by 2050 under some IEA scenarios.
“Our exports also have the potential to reduce emissions by up to 166 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by helping importing nations switch away from higher-emitting fuels such as coal.”
According to a recent EY study, The future role of natural gas in Australia and the region, Australia will need substantial gas production in 2050 under all net zero scenarios – with as much as 130 per cent of today’s output needed depending on the rate of renewables roll-out.
